In the past few years, the geo-strategic
realities of India have changed. Our defence preparedness has to be
integral to these changed realities. An honest analysis as to where we
stand today reveals that our security vulnerability has increased. The
changed realities are-
- There is an emerging Pakistan-China military axis, which has now reached a new level. Chinese troops are present in PoK and other areas. China has repeatedly changed its position on J&K. It has evolved from a position of neutrality to stridency. Stapled Visas to the residents of J&K are being issued, and the Visa to the Northern army commander was objected to. China today is assisting the establishment of 2 nuclear reactors in Pakistan.
- China has accelerated the modernization of its forces. Acquisition of space capabilities, cyber war offensives, DF-21 missiles, aircraft carriers, production of J-11 aircrafts indicate China’s expanded strength.
- China has militarized its territories near the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Building of roads, airbases, positioning of troops has substantially increased.
- There is an increased assertion by China on various pending border issues with India. Despite India’s initiative on resolving various issues, China has adopted a go-slow approach.
- It refers to Arunachal Pradesh as ‘South China’.
- Our western neighbourhood in Pakistan is disturbed. The direction of the State of Pakistan can only be speculated. Will Pakistan move towards democracy, a civil regime, or will Pakistan move towards enlarged role for the army, increased radicalization, unstable democracy, and the potential of nuclear assets falling into rogue hands. Neither the USA nor India can dictate the internal developments of Pakistan. Peace on the western border will be dependent on the course that Pakistan eventually adopts.
- Pakistan’s nuclear capability has been enhanced and it has become a possessor of fifth largest nuclear arsenal in the world. It has developed tactical nuclear weapons bringing a paradigm shift in its strategy.
The mistakes of the past should not be repeated
The Indian military has had a glorious
past- 1.3 million Indian soldiers served in the World War-I (1914-18)
and 2.5 million Indian soldiers fought for the Allied Forces in the
World War II (1939-45). India had established 16 ordnance factories
before 1947. All these fell on the Indian side after partition. After
independence, on account of the developing situation, we failed to keep
up with the requirements of defence preparedness.
While speaking in the Lok Saha on March 21, 1956 on the demand for grants for Defence Ministry Pt. Nehru’s approach was –
“The right approach to defence is to
avoid any unfriendly relations with other countries. Some honourable
members in this House who talked in rather aggressive terms for
neighbouring countries and want to take brave action, sword in hand,
serve no cause, certainly not the cause of this country. It is one thing
for us to be perfectly prepared, because, however peaceful our policy
may be, no government can take the risk of an emergency arising which it
cannot face. But any kind of blustering attitude neither is becoming of
a dignified nation, nor is it safe….Then we come to the second aspect.
The real strength of a country develops by industrial growth, which
implies the capacity to make weapons of war for the army, navy or the
air force”.
Pandit-ji had misread the Chinese
threat. In 1955, he answered an American journalist Edward R. Murrow on
whether he regarded China as a threat-“No, not at all. And practically
looking at the picture, I do not regard any country as a threat to
India”.
It was this approach, which lead to the
Himalayan blunder of 1962. Our soliders were ill-equipped, ill-rationed
and un-acclimatized. They were lacking even in winter clothes. The 1962
War was great disaster. Some 1,383 soliders died, 1696 went missing and
3698 were captured.
What will constitute India’s military preparedness?
The defence experts opine that India
must have a potential for 90-day full spectrum war. It must be prepared
to meet the China-Pakistan axis for a two-front engagement. The object
of this engagement should be to ‘Defeat Pakistan’ and ‘ holding China.’
Modernization of weapons is intrinsic to
defence preparedness. Any military must have a mix of 30% state of the
art weaponry, 40% current and 30% obsolete technology. At one stage, our
military superiority to Pakistan was 3.5 : 1. Today, it has narrowed down to 1.5:1.
We have to live with the fast growing military capabilities of China.
We have to realize the reality that a country with 15,000 kilometers of
international border, has a large part of its borders with countries
with whom we have security issues.
Why should we be over-dependent on
imports. Seventy (70) percent of India’s defence equipments are
dependent on international suppliers. The international community in its
endeavour to enforce peace can actually slow down or stop supplies
leading to our flanks being uncovered. A pathetic situation is revealed
when we have to import even trucks like TATRA to move military
personnel. A country that can launch satellites, and considers itself as
an emerging global power, is dependent internationally for simplest of
supplies. Over the next ten years, our strategy should be to become 70
percent self-reliant.
China border.
We need to build roads, airbases and
other infrastructure along Indo-China border. We need to build up our
capacities to counter Chinese cyber offensive capabilities.
Shortcomings
Army
- There has been no acquisition of artillery guns since 1986 when the 155 mm Howitzers were acquired. In the armoury, we have vitange T-55 and T-90 tanks. Seventy percent of our weaponry is night blind. This night blindness has to be cured.
- Air defence artillery is dependent on obsolete L-70 guns. The recent letter of the Army Chief to the Prime Minister describes this as 90 percent obsolete. Only 23 percent of our planned acquisition has taken place. There is a huge shortage of infantry, in terms of Special Forces, engineers and others.
Navy
- The Indian Navy needs at least three aircraft carriers. We have only one aircraft carrier. INS Vikramaditya acquisition has been delayed by four years. The country needs 30 submarines as against which only 8 are available.
- The country needs 45 integral fighter aircrafts, 17 reconnaissance Aircrafts, 20 anti-submarine Warfare Helicopters. Our fleet is insufficient and obsolete.
Airforce
- Chinese airforce is planning 2300 combat aircrafts by 2020. We are targeting only 750. The induction of Tejas has slowed down with huge cost and time overruns. It will take another five years. MIG-21, 23 and 27 are badly obsolete.
How do we deal with the situation?
The procurement process has slowed down.
The process of indigenization is at a snail’s speed. The Hon’ble
Minister’s repeated assertion is that the moment he hears a rumour or
gets an anonymous letter, he suspends procurement. Why should a Minister
be prisoner of his own image? India needs a bold initiative by
Government. Our procurement is going to cost us at least Rs. 300,000
cores over the next few years to make India safe. The procurement
process has to be transparent and quick. The fear of a possible
allegation should not lead to us to inaction. If we continue to proceed
at the present pace, we are showing a great disservice to the nation.
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